In November 2022, the tractor market is still not expected to grow for the first time this year, and the continuous decline continues. So, in addition to the decline of the tractor market, which will have "11 consecutive drops" in 2022, are there any other points worth paying attention to?
The actual sales of tractors in November reached 13,300 units month on month and down year-on-year
According to the latest terminal sales data, in November 2022, 13300 domestic tractors were sold (excluding exports and military 名媛直播, the same below), a 12% month on month decrease and 58% year-on-year decrease. The year-on-year decrease was 21 percentage points higher than that of last month (- 37%), and the 58% year-on-year decrease was also the largest drop in the tractor terminal market in the second half of this year. Compared with the same period last year, the terminal sales of 13300 units in November this year decreased by about 18000 units, about 42% of the same period last year. In 2022, the terminal sales of tractors have experienced "11 consecutive drops".
In terms of figures alone, the sales volume in the same period last year is not high (31300 units), but the sales volume in the same period is still "high" and difficult to beat for the current market situation (the average actual sales of tractors from January to October this year is only 17400 units); On the other hand, it is also the main reason - demand. Since 2022, the logistics and transportation market has not seen any substantial benefit. It is difficult to stimulate too much terminal demand, and the decline is also normal.
It can be seen from the monthly trend chart of tractor terminal sales in recent three years that this year's tractor market can almost be described as "close to the ground". The sales curve of tractor market from January to November this year is only higher than that of February 2020, when the epidemic hit. In November this year, the sales of 13300 tractors accounted for about 39.82% of the terminal sales of the whole heavy truck market, and the sales of tractors at the heavy truck terminals accounted for less than 40% for the second time this year. From January to November this year, the sales of tractors at the terminal sales of the whole heavy truck market accounted for about 42.35%.
13300 cars. This month's sales volume is hardly outstanding in any year. From January to November this year, the average monthly sales volume of the tractor terminal market was only 17000 units. You should know that when the heavy truck market dropped for six consecutive times in the second half of last year due to the impact of the "Sixth National Day" regulation switch, the average monthly sales volume of the tractor terminal market was close to 30000 units, which shows how weak the terminal demand is today. It can be seen from the above figure that the cumulative sales decline of the tractor terminal market has narrowed month by month in recent months. Although the market suffered a sharp drop of nearly 60% in November, the cumulative decline has not been further expanded. The cumulative decline after November has narrowed by 10 percentage points compared with that after April, but the cumulative decline of 70% from January to November is still "shocking".
Jiefang Top Heavy Truck/Dongfeng Top Two Yutong/Feichi Soaring
As the most competitive segment in the heavy truck market, the "fight" in the tractor market is the most exciting. When the industry goes down as a whole, enterprises are more active in fighting for the market, and the monthly ranking changes every month.
In November, no enterprise in the tractor terminal market continued to sell more than 10000 units. The top five enterprises, Jiefang, Heavy Truck, Dongfeng, Foton and Shaanxi Automobile, all sold more than 1000 units, with 3575 units, 2565 units, 2202 units, 1786 units and 1728 units respectively.
It can be seen from the above table that although the tractor market as a whole continues to experience a decline, there are still enterprises that have achieved growth in terms of tractor manufacturers. In November, two of the top 12 enterprises in terms of terminal sales achieved growth, and the number of enterprises that achieved growth was one less than that in October. The sales of Yutong and Foshan Feichi, which ranked 11th and 12th in the November sales list, soared 1090% and 3333% year on year respectively in November; The decline of enterprises reached double-digit, and there were still many enterprises with a decline of more than 60%. Among the top ten enterprises with the most serious decline in sales, the sales volume in November fell 89% year on year; However, many enterprises, such as Heavy Truck, Dongfeng, Universiade and Hanma Science and Technology, saw their year-on-year decline in November lower than that of the industry as a whole, outperforming the "market". It is worth mentioning that Hanma Technology has outperformed the tractor market for 11 consecutive months this year.
It is noted that the pace of November's month on month decline in the tractor market is the same as that of the tractor market. Half of the enterprises in the tractor market experienced a month on month decline in sales in November. Enterprises such as Sany, Universiade, Hanma Technology, Hongyan, Yutong and Foshan Feichi performed better in November than in October. Yutong also gained the highest monthly ranking in the tractor terminal market this year - No. 11.
From the perspective of market share, the top ten enterprises of tractor terminal sales in November accounted for 96.63% of the whole market, and the enterprises after the top 10 only sold more than 400 vehicles in total. Among them, FAW Jiefang, which ranked first, sold 3575 tractors in November, with a monthly share of 26.94%, and continued to eat more than 1/4 of the tractor market alone. From January to November this year, the cumulative share of Jiefang in the tractor terminal market has reached 28.88%; In November, Sinotruk and Dongfeng sold 2565 tractors and 2202 tractors, with monthly shares of 19.33% and 16.56% respectively, with a share gap of less than 3%; The gap between Foton and Shaanqi ranked fourth and fifth is smaller. They sold 1786 and 1728 tractors respectively, with a monthly share of 13.46% and 13.02%, which is no more than 58; In November, the total share of the top five enterprises reached 89.33%, which narrowed compared with that of the previous month (the total share in October reached 92.79%), but TOP 5 in the tractor industry still continues to lead the army by a large advantage.
The first 11 months: ranking month by month, new energy continues to "stir up"
From January to November this year, the total actual sales of the tractor terminal market was only 187100 units, a 70% year-on-year drop, with a net decrease of about 430000 units, which is only 30% of the cumulative sales of the same period last year. The ranking of tractor terminal sales from January to November this year has changed greatly compared with the ranking at the end of 2021: Foton Motor, which ranks fifth at the end of 2021, temporarily ranks fourth in the industry after November; Sany and Universiade rose from the 7th and 8th positions at the end of 2021 to the 6th and 7th positions in the industry; Hanma Technology, which failed in the top ten at the end of the year last year, has outperformed the "market" for 11 consecutive months and is now ranked 9th in the industry.
From the perspective of market share, compared with the same period last year, 7 of the top 10 enterprises in terms of cumulative sales volume from January to November this year achieved growth in share. The most obvious growth was that of Foton and Dongfeng, which increased by 2.32 percentage points and 1.36 percentage points respectively. Liberation also increased by nearly 1 percentage point, 0.84%, compared with the same period last year; The cumulative shares of Hanma Science and Technology, Universiade, XCMG and Sany increased by 0.61%, 0.45%, 0.24% and 0.02% respectively.
The change is also reflected in the ranking. Compared with the same period last year, only four of the top ten enterprises with accumulated sales from January to November this year, namely Jiefang, Heavy Truck, Dongfeng and Xugong, remained unchanged; Four enterprises, including Foton, Sany, Universiade and Hanma Technology, rose in the rankings. Among them, Hanma Technology rose from the 12th place in the industry in the same period last year to the 9th place in the current industry, Foton rose one place to the 4th place in the industry, and Sany and Universiade also rose one place compared with the same period last year. Of course, if there is a rise, there will be a fall. There are also many enterprises whose industry rankings from January to November this year have declined compared with the same period last year.
It is noted that from January to November this year, the sales of new energy heavy trucks in heavy truck terminals accounted for 4.3%, while in the field of tractors, the proportion reached 5.73%. This year, 10700 of the 187100 tractors listed nationwide are new energy tractors. According to the observation of the First Commercial Vehicle Network, from January to November this year, all mainstream tractor enterprises have new energy tractors on the road. As of November, the proportion of new energy in the tractor terminal sales of three enterprises has exceeded 60%. Among the tractors sold by XCMG, Hanma Technology and Beiben this year, the proportion of new energy tractors has reached 75.79%, 69.65% and 60.41% respectively; In addition, the new energy tractors of Sany and SAIC Hongyan also accounted for 37.74% and 27.36% respectively.
Among the top 5 enterprises in the tractor industry, Foton new energy tractors accounted for the highest proportion, up to 3.41%, and Dongfeng new energy tractors accounted for more than 3%, up to 3.05%; The proportion of new energy tractor models sold by Shaanxi Automobile and Heavy Truck this year also reached 1.21% and 1.02% respectively.
From January to November this year, most of the enterprises with a high proportion of new energy in the sales volume of tractors achieved an increase in the industry ranking or market share. Take Hanma Technology as an example. From January to November this year, Hanma Technology sold 2260 tractors, a year-on-year decrease of 38% (it is the only mainstream enterprise with a cumulative decrease of less than 40% this year). Its cumulative share increased by 0.61% compared with the same period last year. The industry ranking rose from the 12th place to the 9th place in the same period last year. The proportion of new energy for tractors sold by Hanma Technology this year reached 69.65%, The new energy tractor obviously contributes a lot to the above-mentioned "improvement" of Hanma Technology.
Concluding remarks
In 2022, the competition in the tractor field has been extremely fierce since the beginning of the year. After 11 rounds of fierce competition, the market pattern has changed; On the other hand, the competition in the tractor market this year not only exists in the competition of traditional models, but also the competition of new energy models is getting better and better. The current "dominant" enterprises in the field of new energy tractors, such as Hanma Science and Technology, and even Yutong (in November, Yutong was "killed" into the 11th place in the monthly list with new energy tractors), which did not have the advantage in the past, are constantly stirring the domestic tractor industry pattern.
In the last month of 2022, facing the sales volume of 26800 vehicles in the same period, combined with the demand of the current heavy truck market that has been slow to improve, it is inevitable that the tractor terminal market will end with a "12 consecutive drops" in 2022.
