The market research in the circulation field of construction machinery in China will be conducted on December 8-17, 2022. The excavator models in the following report are: small excavator ≤ 18.5t, medium excavator 18.5t~28.5t, and large excavator ≥ 28.5t; The provinces covered by each region are: East China (Anhui, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Fujian, Shanghai), South China (Guangxi, Guangdong, Hainan), Central China (Hubei, Hunan, Henan), North China (Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia), Southwest China (Sichuan, Chongqing, Yunnan, Guizhou, Tibet), Northwest China (Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia, Qinghai, Xinjiang), Northeast China (Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang).
Expected feedback of domestic excavator market in December 2022
1. Year on year growth expectation of overall sales
90.89% of the surveyed agents expect the domestic excavator market to decline to varying degrees year-on-year in December, and 21.29% of the surveyed agents expect the decline to exceed 50%, an increase of 6.33 percentage points over the previous month; The agents of 15.15%, 16.67%, 18.18% and 19.70% are expected to decline 41%~50%, 31%~40%, 21%~30% and 0%~20% year on year respectively. 1.52% and 7.59% of agents are expected to be flat and growing. On the whole, the market expectation in December was inferior to that in November, and it began to enter the annual seasonal slack season. The overall domestic market is still in the process of bottoming down.
2. YOY growth forecast of small excavator sales
87.87% of the agents expect the domestic small digging market to decline to varying degrees year-on-year in December. 30.29% of agents are expected to decline more than 50% year on year, 9.09%, 12.12%, 13.64% and 22.73% of agents are expected to decline 41%~50%, 31%~40%, 21%~30% and 0%~20% year on year respectively. 7.58% and 4.55% of the agents expect the small excavation market to be flat and growing year on year in December.
3. Year on year growth forecast of medium-sized excavator sales
86.36% of the agents predicted that the domestic medium excavator market in December fell to varying degrees year-on-year, an increase of 3.95 percentage points over the previous month. 22.71% of agents are expected to decline by more than 50% year on year, while 15.15%, 13.64%, 16.67% and 18.19% of agents are expected to decline by 41%~50%, 31%~40%, 21%~30% and 0%~20% year on year respectively. 4.55% and 9.09% of the agents are expected to remain flat and grow year on year.
4. Year on year growth forecast of large excavator sales
87.88% of the agents predicted that the domestic large excavator market would decline to varying degrees in December, 1.31 percentage points lower than that of last month. 28.78% of agents are expected to decline by more than 50% year on year, while 13.64%, 12.12%, 15.15% and 18.19% of agents are expected to decline by 41%~50%, 31%~40%, 21%~30% and 0%~20% year on year. 6.06% of the surveyed agents are expected to be flat or slightly increased year on year.
In general, in December 2022, the market situation of medium and large excavators is better than that of small excavators, especially large excavators; However, the overall market performance was weaker than that in November.
5. Statistics of operating rate of customer's equipment in the first ten days of December, 2022
In the first ten days of December 2022, 28.79% of the surveyed customers' equipment operating rate is lower than 40%; 16.67% of the surveyed customers' equipment operating rate exceeded 60%; The proportion of customers with 50%~60% operating rate is 19.70%; The proportion of customers with 40%~50% operating rate is 34.85%.
From a trend perspective, the operating rate of customer equipment in early December is improving compared to the end of November. The medium to high operating rate (more than 60%) accounts for more than 15%, which is worse than that in early November, but better than that in early October and close to that in early September.
From the first ten days to the middle of December, after the gradual liberalization of epidemic control, there was a concentrated rush period for key projects in various regions, but the impact of labor shortage caused by the epidemic still existed.
6. In December 2022, it is expected that the number of new orders for complete machine sales will change year on year
86.36% of the investigated agents predicted that the new orders for complete machine sales in December 2022 would decrease year on year, with a decrease rate of 6.63 percentage points worse than that of the previous month. 13.64% of the investigated agents predicted that the new orders for complete machine sales would increase year on year.
Monitoring feedback on domestic excavator market price from November to December 2022
In the first ten days of December 2022, the sales transaction price of domestic excavators will change month on month
In the first ten days of December 2022, in the domestic excavator market, the sales transaction price of large excavators rose 2.60% month on month compared with the beginning of November, and the growth rate was 5.37 percentage points higher than that of last month; The sales transaction price of medium-sized excavators rose 1.87% month on month compared with the beginning of November, and the growth rate was 3.49 percentage points higher than that of last month; Small excavator sales transaction price rose 1.92% month on month, with a growth rate of 2.22 percentage points. In the first ten days of December, the reason for the general price rise was that after switching to the non road "National IV" emission standard, the "National IV" and "National III" equipment were intermingled among the excavators traded in the market, while the "National IV" equipment price rose significantly, driving up the average price of the terminal market.
Feedback on domestic excavator market inventory in the first ten days of December 2022
In the first ten days of December 2022, in the domestic market, the inventory of the investigated agents in the channel decreased by 15.09% compared with the same period last month; Among them, the average inventory of large excavators above 30T is 11, the average inventory of medium excavators between 19-30T is 15, and the average inventory of small excavators below 19T is 19.
Feedback on domestic construction machinery market risk from November to December 2022
1. Statistics on overdue rate of customer financing, mortgage or installment in November 2022
At the end of November 2022, in the domestic market, the overdue rate of Phase 1, Phase 2 and Phase 3 of financing, mortgage or installment payments of the investigated customers were 6.28%, 5.41% and 5.52% on average, respectively, which decreased by 0.68, 0.32 and 0.49 percentage points compared with the end of last month, and the overall overdue rate was slightly improved. Compared with the end of October, some places such as Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Fujian, Jiangsu, Shandong, Hainan, Gansu and Ningxia had a high risk of increasing overdue rate.
2. In December 2022, the expected judgment of overdue rate of customer repayment
In December 2022, 68.18% of the investigated agents predicted that the overdue rate of customers' repayment would increase compared with November, and 31.82% of the investigated agents predicted that the overdue rate of customers' repayment would decrease month on month. The former slightly increased 2.09 percentage points compared with the previous month.
3. In November 2022, statistics on the collection rate of customer's equipment project funds
At the end of November 2022, the average value of the customer's payment collection rate for equipment engineering is 49.40%, a slight deterioration of 3.16 percentage points over the same period of the previous month, with the maximum value of 96% and the minimum value of 5%, respectively, increasing by 1 percentage point and remaining unchanged. The customer's payment collection has deteriorated slightly in the short term.
In the first ten days of December 2022, compared with the first ten days of November, the payment collection in South China and Southwest China has improved month on month. The collection rate of customer equipment in Heilongjiang, Liaoning, Hebei, Inner Mongolia, Tianjin, Anhui, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Gansu and Shaanxi provinces has deteriorated significantly.
4. Statistics of changes in customer equipment shift cost from October to November, 2022
In November 2022, the shift fee income of the customer's equipment decreased by 4.46% year-on-year for large excavators, 1.76% year-on-year for medium excavators, and 0.86% year-on-year for small excavators, respectively 1.99, 2.60, and 2.20 percentage points higher than that of the previous month. On the whole, from November to December, the competitive environment in the rental market of terminal excavators was relatively stable, but the overall equipment rental price still decreased slightly compared with the month on month.
