The year 2022 is almost over, and the heavy dump truck is undoubtedly the most disappointing segment of the heavy truck market this year. This once most promising segment has suffered a sharp decline this year, with an average decline of 77% from January to October, and a cumulative decline of 82% after October; On the other hand, the process of new energy utilization of heavy-duty dump trucks is quite fast (from January to October, the proportion of new energy vehicles reached 10.03%, 2.4 times the proportion of new energy heavy trucks in the terminal sales of heavy trucks), and the competition pattern of the heavy-duty dump truck market has also changed due to its higher and higher penetration rate of new energy. Therefore, although this subdivided field has suffered a series of falls, there are still some interesting points and highlights.
4519 vehicles sold in November increased by 50% month on month and decreased by 51% year on year
According to the terminal sales data held by the First Commercial Vehicle Network (the coverage of compulsory traffic insurance, excluding exports and military vehicles), in November 2022, the domestic heavy dump truck market sold 4519 vehicles in total, an increase of 50% month on month (MoM) compared with October. For three consecutive months, the MoM growth was achieved, and the monthly sales again "climbed" to the level of 4000 vehicles. The year-on-year decline continued to be 51%, and the year-on-year decline was less than 70% for three consecutive months (down 65% and 61% respectively in September and October), The year-on-year drop of 51% is the smallest drop in the heavy dump truck market this year, and the monthly sales of 4519 vehicles is the second highest in the heavy dump truck market from January to November this year. So far, the heavy dump truck market has expanded to "17 consecutive drops" from the second half of 2021, with an average drop of 75% from January to November this year.
From the monthly trend of domestic heavy dump truck terminal sales in recent three years, the red line representing 2022 has always been at a low level. The average sales of less than 3000 vehicles in the three months from August to October this year is a complete bottom performance. The sales in November have rebounded compared with the previous months, but are still under the pressure of the blue line. From January to November 2022, the average monthly sales volume of the heavy dump truck market was just over 4000. You should know that the average sales volume of the dump truck market in the second half of last year also exceeded 9000 when it dropped for six consecutive years. In December 2021, the heavy dump truck market only sold more than 7600 vehicles, which was the lowest month last year. However, according to the current market situation, it is still difficult to achieve growth. If there is no substantial positive stimulus to demand, the probability of heavy dump truck market ending with "12 consecutive drops" this year is very high.
The first commercial vehicle network noticed that the tractor, natural gas heavy truck and other market segments hit the bottom in April, and began to "rebound" in May. In recent months, the cumulative sales decline has narrowed month by month, but the dump truck market has not taken the same "road" as other market segments. It can be seen from the above figure that the cumulative sales decline of the dump truck market this year has been expanding all the way. After June, the cumulative decline has reached 85%. After July, the cumulative decline has stabilized at 85%. After August, the cumulative decline has finally narrowed slightly by 1 percentage point. After September and November, the cumulative decline has narrowed by another 1 percentage point. However, the cumulative decline of the dump truck market from January to November, which exceeded 80%, is still the worst in all segments of the heavy truck market. In terms of figures, the performance of the heavy dump truck market in 2022 is undoubtedly surprising and disappointing.
Heavy Duty Truck won the championship of the monthly list, and Sany's "three consecutive increases" Yutong was re promoted
In November, the sales volume of domestic heavy-duty dump truck terminals fell 51% year on year, and the mainstream enterprises in the heavy-duty dump truck market (the top 10 in sales volume) shared 88.94% of the total market share.
In November, the year-on-year decline of the heavy duty dump truck market narrowed by 10 percentage points compared with that in October, but 51% of the year-on-year decline still falls into the category of big drop. There are still many enterprises with a decline of more than 50%. The sales of the enterprises with the most serious decline in the top ten dropped 87% year on year in November, but there are also Shaanxi Automobile, Futian, Nanjun and other enterprises with a decline significantly lower than the overall decline of the market, outperforming the "market"; At the same time, the dump truck market continued to grow in November, and the number of enterprises that achieved growth increased by 2 compared with October. The sales of HTC, Sany, Yutong, XCMG and United Trucks in November increased by 3%, 36%, 589%, 64% and 381% year on year respectively, of which Sany has "increased for three consecutive times". Yutong led the heavy dump truck market in November with a year-on-year growth of 589%. Therefore, Yutong again ranked in the top 8 of the heavy dump truck monthly list.
In November, CNHTC won the first place in the monthly list of heavy-duty dump truck market with the sales volume of 1112 vehicles, and the monthly share reached 24.61%. It is worth mentioning that the sales volume of enterprises in the heavy-duty dump truck market exceeded 1000 again after seven months; Dongfeng and Shaanxi Automobile sold 678 and 520 heavy dump trucks in November, ranking second and third respectively, with the monthly share of 15.0% and 11.51% respectively; FAW Jiefang and Sany Group, ranking fourth and fifth, sold 355 and 308 dump trucks in November, with a monthly share of 7.86% and 6.82% respectively, only 47 vehicles apart; In addition, SAIC Hongyan and Foton, which ranked sixth and seventh, both sold more than 200 vehicles, reaching 283 and 250 respectively, only 33 vehicles apart. In November, only three enterprises in the heavy dump truck market had a share of more than 10%, and the total share of the top five enterprises reached 65.79%.
From January to November, the proportion of new energy vehicles exceeded 10%, and TAs continued to stir up the industry pattern
From January to November this year, the domestic heavy duty dump truck market sold 44500 units in total, down 81% year on year. The cumulative decline was 1 percentage point smaller than that in the previous October (- 82%), a net decrease of about 192000 units compared with the same period last year, which is only about 18.8% of the sales in the same period last year. After November, the sales ranking of heavy dump truck terminals this year has changed a lot compared with that at the end of last year: Dongfeng and Heavy Truck, which ranked second and third at the end of last year, temporarily ranked the top two in the industry after November; FAW Jiefang has risen from No. 5 at the end of last year to No. 4 in the current industry; Foton rose from the sixth place at the end of last year to the fifth place in the industry at present; Last year, Sany Group, which had no name in the top ten of the year-end sales list, broke into the top ten, temporarily ranking the eighth in the industry with the cumulative sales of 2097 vehicles.
From the perspective of market share, compared with the same period last year, the share of 7 of the top 10 enterprises in cumulative sales volume from January to November this year increased, with Dongfeng, Sany and Dayun having the largest share growth, up 3.38%, 3.46% and 2.96% respectively; Futian, Sinotruk, Xugong and Sanhuan increased by 0.77%, 0.6%, 0.88% and 0.46% respectively; If the scope is expanded, Yutong, which currently ranks 11th in terms of cumulative sales, has increased its share in the heavy dump truck market by 2.02 percentage points from January to November this year compared with the same period last year.
The change is also reflected in the ranking. Compared with the same period last year, only one of the top ten enterprises in terms of cumulative sales volume from January to November this year's Dayun Heavy Truck remained unchanged; Dongfeng, Sinotruk, Jiefang, Foton, Sany, XCMG and other six enterprises rose in the ranking, of which Dongfeng rose from the second place in the industry in the same period last year to the first place at present; Heavy truck, Jiefang and Fukuda also rose one place in the ranking; Sany and XCMG rushed into the top 10 of the industry from the top 10 in the same period last year, of which Sany rose to the current 8th from the 12th in the same period, and XCMG rose to the 9th from the 11th in the same period; At present, Yutong, which ranks 11th in the industry temporarily, has risen rapidly from the 28th in the industry in the same period last year. At the same time, the industry ranking of more than one enterprise from January to November this year declined compared with the same period last year. Two enterprises are not in the top ten of the industry in the same period last year.
Sany, XCMG and Yutong, the three enterprises, are in the top position in the heavy dump truck industry this year, which has a great correlation with the new energy transformation of the dump truck industry. The First Commercial Vehicle Network noted that 4625 of the 44500 terminal sales of heavy duty dump trucks from January to November this year were new energy vehicles, accounting for 10.39%, 2.4 times the proportion of new energy heavy trucks in heavy truck terminal sales (4.3%) in the previous November, and the highest proportion of new energy in the heavy truck market segment. From January to November this year, the "penetration" of new energy vehicles in the dump truck field was very fast. You should know that from January to November last year, new energy vehicles accounted for only 0.55% of the dump truck market.
The First Commercial Vehicle Network noted that the fuel type structure of the heavy truck market this year has changed greatly compared with that of last year, as well as in the dump truck field. It can be seen from the above figure that from January to November this year, although diesel power is still the fuel type with the highest proportion in the field of heavy-duty dump trucks, it has significantly decreased by 10.63 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The total share of new energy vehicles (hybrid, fuel cell and pure electric) increased by 9.84 percentage points, of which the pure electric dump truck was the most prominent, with an increase of 9.27% over the same period last year; In addition, the proportion of heavy duty dump truck terminal sales from January to November this year also increased by 0.79 percentage points. Since this year, the proportion of new energy vehicles has been expanding, and the industry pattern of heavy-duty dump trucks has been continuously stirred.
Among the top 12 enterprises in terms of heavy dump truck terminal sales from January to November this year, Sany, Xugong and Yutong accounted for a very high proportion of new energy vehicles, reaching 47.64%, 66.64% and 98.58% respectively. It is worth mentioning that Sany, Yutong and Xugong are also the top three enterprises in terms of new energy dump trucks from January to November; At the same time, the new energy accounts for more than 5% of the sales of dump trucks of top enterprises in the industries such as Jiefang and Hongyan from January to November, and the new energy models of Dongfeng, Shaanxi Automobile and Foton dump trucks account for more than 2%, of which the new energy models of Jiefang dump trucks account for 5.02%, which is the highest proportion of new energy among the top 5 heavy dump truck enterprises. According to the analysis of the First Commercial Vehicle Network, under the background of the national "dual carbon strategy", new energy vehicles have become a new competitive point in the field of heavy-duty dump trucks. Enterprises are still increasing their investment in new energy dump trucks. The market pattern of heavy-duty dump trucks is constantly changing because of this new competitive point.
epilogue
From January to November 2022, the heavy dump truck market has suffered a sharp decline in succession. This segment, which was once considered the most promising segment of the heavy truck market this year, has never shown its "standard" under the multiple influences of sluggish demand, unexpected project commencement, epidemic situation, etc; At the same time, can the sales of new energy dump trucks, which accounted for 10.39% of the total sales of dump trucks from January to November, reach a new high? It will be a big attraction of the heavy dump truck market in the future.
