Although the sales volume in the same period of last year was the lowest in that year, the heavy truck industry in November 2022 was still on the decline channel. In November 2022, the sales volume of China's heavy truck market is expected to decline by 12%, and the situation in the fourth quarter is not optimistic.
The sales volume in November decreased by 7% month on month and 12% year on year
The year 2022 has entered the countdown. After the "Gold Nine Silver Ten" has evolved into "Copper Nine Iron Ten", the heavy truck sales in the penultimate month of 2022 will still be "year-on-year decline".
According to the preliminary data, in November this year, China's heavy truck market sold about 45000 vehicles (invoicing caliber, including exports and new energy), down 7% from October this year, 12% from 51100 in the same period last year, and a net decrease of more than 6100 vehicles. 45,000 units is the lowest point in history in the past decade, which is less than the sales level in November 2015 (46,700 units). November this year was also the 19th consecutive month of decline in the heavy truck market since May last year.
In total, 616000 heavy trucks were sold in the market from January to November this year, down 54% from 1.338 million in the same period of last year, or as much as 720000. In the middle of this year, the industry generally predicted that the market would recover in the second half of the year on a month on month basis, and the annual sales volume was expected to decline by 40-50%. But now, the market sales volume has not been cut by half, and the year-on-year decline of more than 51% is almost certain. Moreover, if the overseas exports of new energy heavy trucks and Chinese heavy trucks continue to be awesome and continue to grow significantly year on year, the overall decline of the heavy truck market in 2022 will be greater.
After November, the year-on-year decline in the last three months has been low: the year-on-year decline in market sales in September was 12.46%, the year-on-year decline in October was 9.93%, and the year-on-year decline in November was 12%. On average, the monthly average year-on-year decrease from September to November was only 11.5%, and the monthly average year-on-year decrease in the second half of the year was 17%, both of which were far lower than the monthly average decrease of 63% in the first half of the year. However, the decrease in the average decline is more due to the low base in the same period last year than to the recovery of terminal market demand.
In addition, the invoiced sales volume of the industry is not awesome, and the actual sales situation is also very general. From the data of Shanghai Insurance, the actual sales in January October this year did not exceed 50000 units except for the sales in March and June. The actual sales in August and September were only more than 40000. The sales in October were far lower than that in September, down 19% month on month. The monthly average sales volume from July to October was only 39000 vehicles. From this dimension, it can be seen that domestic terminal demand has not improved, leaving only overseas exports and new energy heavy trucks in the "hard support".
What will happen to the heavy truck market in 2023?
As for the "phenomenon" that the market sales continued to decline year-on-year in the fourth quarter, most people had expected it. The reasons are also very obvious: overdraft ahead of schedule, epidemic control, economic slowdown, freight depression, lack of confidence in investment and consumption.
Judging from the current trend, the commercial vehicle industry and heavy truck industry in the fourth quarter have not seen signs of recovery. In November, the epidemic spread quickly across the country, many places implemented a large area of "silence", and consumption and investment continued to be at a low point (let alone the continuous decline of real estate). Heavy trucks are the means of production and means of transportation. If both the supplier and the owner, as the "upstream" of the upstream transportation industry, are unable to provide a relatively rich supply of goods, then the business of the transport households, logistics companies and engineering construction companies will not improve, and there will be no new demand for vehicles.
This can also explain why after the implementation of the policy of 10% reduction of highway tolls from October 1, the market demand has not improved at all. The other macro data are also under great pressure: in November, China's latest manufacturing purchasing manager index (PMI) was 48%, which was lower than the boom and bust line again after October (49.2%), reflecting that the manufacturing industry was in a contraction range; The total retail sales of consumer goods in October fell by 0.5% year on year, indicating that consumption has continued to decline.
In this case, it is "inevitable" that the demand for cars in the fourth quarter is sluggish and not improving. First Commercial Vehicle Network estimates that the cumulative sales volume in the fourth quarter of this year is expected to be just over 140000, down 12% year on year; The annual industrial sales volume is expected to be 670000, down 52% year on year.
What about 2023? Will the market recover significantly?
Judging from the current trend, the "bottom rebound" of the market next year is expected to be imminent, but it is difficult to achieve a substantial recovery. According to some public information reports, the gap between local fiscal revenue and expenditure has reached the highest level in history since this year. On the one hand, with the continuous decline of real estate, the revenue from land transfer, which is the most important part of local finance, has shrunk sharply, and local revenue has decreased significantly; On the other hand, the financial pressure brought by epidemic prevention expenditure is growing. The widening gap between fiscal revenue and expenditure will inevitably seriously hamper the local government's progress in promoting infrastructure investment and consumption to boost the local economy. If consumption and investment are not optimistic, how can we support the development of commercial vehicle market next year?
Based on this judgment, it is estimated that the sales volume of heavy trucks in 2023 will be 750000-800000 units, a moderate recovery year on year. Perhaps, the only chance to exceed the expected growth lies in when the national four diesel truck large-scale elimination policy will be introduced. Recently, 15 departments, including the Ministry of Ecology and Environment, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security, the Ministry of Finance, and the Ministry of Transport, jointly issued the Action Plan for Deepening the Fight against Heavy Pollution Weather, Ozone Pollution, and Diesel Truck Pollution; Then, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Ecology and Environment jointly issued the Implementation Plan for Carbon Peak in the Nonferrous Metals Industry, which clearly stated that "promote the elimination of vehicles in the national four and lower level plants in key areas for air pollution prevention".
From the above policy signs, it may not be out of reach to encourage the early elimination of the national four truck industry in a wider range.
