In the following, the range of each excavator model is: small digging ≤ 18.5t, medium digging 18.5t ~ 28.5t, large digging ≥ 28.5t; the provinces covered by each region are: East China (Anhui, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Jiangxi , Fujian, Shanghai), South China (Guangxi, Guangdong, Hainan), Central China (Hubei, Hunan, Henan), North China (Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia), Southwest China (Sichuan, Chongqing, Yunnan, Guizhou , Tibet), northwest region (Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia, Qinghai, Xinjiang), northeastern region (Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang). Most terminal markets are still in a downward channel in December, and the year-on-year growth rate will slightly exceed expectations, and the bottoming process is gradually becoming clear.
01 Feedback on domestic excavator market expectations in December 2023
1. Overall sales growth is expected to stabilize year-on-year
The low market expectations in December are related to the fact that the operating rate at the end of the year began to be sluggish due to seasonal factors. At the same time, it can be seen that while the market continues to differentiate, the bottoming process is becoming increasingly clear.
91.8% of agents expect the domestic excavator market to decline to varying degrees year-on-year in December, an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the same period in November. 1.6% of agents expect the market to be flat year-on-year in December, an increase of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month; 6.6% of agents expect a year-on-year growth, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points from the previous month.
2. The domestic market for small excavators is expected to improve significantly.
The ultra-low expectations for the small digging market in December have improved to a greater extent than last month, and the number of agents who expect a smaller decline is gradually increasing.
83.5% of agents expect that the domestic small digging market will decline to varying degrees year-on-year in December 2023. 3.3% of agents expect the small digging market to remain flat year-on-year in December; 13.2% of agents expect it to grow year-on-year. Among them, the number of agents expected to grow year-on-year increased more than last month.
3. The domestic market for medium-sized excavators is expected to continue to deteriorate.
The mid-level excavation market in December is still not optimistic, and more agents believe that the mid-level excavation market will continue to deteriorate. In the short term, there are an increasing number of groups who expect that the mining market will see a sharp decline of more than 70%.
90.1% of agents expect that the domestic excavation market will decline to varying degrees year-on-year in December 2023. 6.6% is expected to be flat year over year, and 3.3% is expected to grow. In terms of regions, only some agents in the North China market and Southwest market expect that China Mining will remain the same year-on-year, and the Guizhou China Mining market will see the most significant improvement.
4. The domestic market for large excavators is expected to improve slightly
In December 2023, the domestic large-scale mining market expectations are close to those of small-scale mining, and better than those of medium-sized mining. The overall market sentiment has improved significantly month-on-month, and there are obvious signs of improvement in some markets in East China, South China, and Southwest China.
88.5% of agents expect that the domestic big digging market will decline to varying degrees year-on-year in December 2023. 6.6% of agents expect the same year-on-year growth, and 4.9% expect year-on-year growth. Expectations for ultra-low big digs (a year-on-year decrease of more than 50%) continue to narrow, which means that the market sentiment for big digs has improved in the short term.
5. In December 2023, the operating rate of customer equipment deteriorated slightly from the previous month.
The operating rate of the overall terminal market from the end of November to early December did not continue the improving trend of the previous survey cycle, and the situation began to deteriorate. This is closely related to the greater impact of extreme weather such as snowfall in the north and rainfall in the south in recent days.
In mid-to-early December 2023, the equipment operating rate of 32.8% of the surveyed customers was less than 40%; the equipment operating rate of 14.8% of the surveyed customers exceeded 60%, of which more than 70% had a significant decrease in operating rate; 50%~60 The proportion of customers with operating rates of 40% to 50% is 21.3%; the proportion of customers with operating rates of 40% to 50% is 31.2%.
In terms of trends, the differentiation trend in customer equipment operating rates is weakening in early December 2023 compared to the end of November 2023. The proportion of high operating rates (above 70%) deteriorated by 1.6 percentage points; the proportion of medium and high operating rates (50% to 70%) deteriorated slightly; and the proportion of low operating rates (below 40%) deteriorated by nearly 5 percentage points. From a regional perspective, high open rates are basically concentrated in East China, South China, Central China and Southwest China, but they do not completely overlap. After entering December, the operating rate in the northwest has picked up significantly, especially in Gansu and Qinghai provinces.
6. In December 2023, the number of new orders for complete machine sales is expected to improve slightly.
82% of agents expect that the volume of new orders for complete machine sales will decrease year-on-year in December 2023, accounting for a decrease of 11.6 percentage points from the previous month. 18% of agents expect that the volume of new orders will increase year-on-year. The former will decrease by 4.4 percentage points compared with the same period last year. percentage point.
02 Domestic excavator market price monitoring feedback from November 2023 to December 2023
In December 2023, the transaction prices of large and medium-sized mines deteriorated month-on-month, while the prices of small mines increased slightly.
At present, the price decline of large and medium-sized diggers has shown a slightly worsening trend in the short term. In contrast, the price of small diggers has rebounded slightly compared with last month. Judging from this, the competition between large and medium-sized diggers has become increasingly fierce, and the overall price war among small diggers has slowed down.
In early December 2023, in the domestic market, the sales transaction price of large excavators decreased by 1.9% month-on-month; the sales transaction price of medium-sized excavators decreased by 1% month-on-month; and the sales transaction price of small excavators increased by 0.3% month-on-month.
03 In early December 2023, the domestic excavator market inventory increased by 47.1% compared with the previous month.
In early December 2023, the average inventory of domestic market agents increased by 47.1% month-on-month. Among them, the average inventory of large excavators above 30T is 8 units; the average inventory of medium-sized excavators between 19-30T is 7 units; and the average inventory of small excavators below 19T is 10 units.
04 Feedback on domestic construction machinery market risks from November 2023 to December 2023
1. At the end of November 2023, the overdue rate of customer financing, mortgage or installment repayment will worsen slightly.
At the end of November 2023, in terms of overdue area, the situation of large excavations, medium excavations and small excavations has deteriorated across the board, and the overall overdue area has increased by 4.8 percentage points.
The first-period overdue rate, second-period overdue rate and third-period overdue rate of the surveyed customers in the domestic market for financing, mortgage or installment repayment increased by 2.5, 1.8 and 0.5 percentage points respectively from the end of last month. The short-term overdue rate worsened the most, and the mid-term overdue situation worsened. The situation is minor, with the long-term overdue rate showing a slight deterioration.
2. At the end of November 2023, the customer equipment project payment recovery rate declined slightly.
At the end of November 2023, customers' repayment situation showed a slight decline compared with the end of last month, and the increase in low repayment rates lowered the overall level. Therefore, with the exception of the northwest region, the collection rates in all other major regions have declined to varying degrees compared with the previous month. Currently, the average repayment rate for customer equipment projects is 50.3%, 1.2 percentage points worse than the same period last month.
