In the second half of 2022, the sales volume of excavators turned positive as scheduled, and it is expected to continue to achieve a small positive growth in 2023. From January to October 2022, the sales volume of excavator industry was 220797 units, down 26% year on year, of which 20501 units were sold in October, up 8.1% year on year, showing a significant recovery. From the perspective of domestic and overseas markets, the domestic market continued to improve marginally, and the decline narrowed to about 10% in October, mainly due to the base effect, domestic infrastructure projects and the impact of the switch of emission standards from country 3 to country 4. It is expected that the decline will further narrow in 2023. The overseas market has maintained rapid growth, and the domestic leading enterprises have the product power comparable to the international giants. In addition to obtaining super-high market share in emerging countries such as Southeast Asia, the market share in developed countries in Europe and the United States has also continued to increase, and is expected to continue to grow in 2023.
The sales of excavator in the industry is expected to achieve a small positive growth in 2023. Assuming that the domestic excavator sales volume will be 156000 and the export excavator sales volume will be 108000 in 2022, the sensitivity analysis of the industry excavator sales volume in 2023 will be carried out on this basis. We expect that the domestic market will continue to improve marginally, and the decline is expected to narrow to within 30%. The prosperity of the overseas market will decline slightly. However, the domestic head enterprises are expected to continue to achieve share increase by virtue of their own product strength and channel expansion, and the growth rate is expected to be 20-30%. Then the sales volume of the industrial excavator is expected to achieve a small positive growth in 2023, and the performance of the head enterprises will be better.
The domestic demand for upgrading is still in a downward cycle, and the rebound in elasticity remains to be reversed in the domestic market. Because there is no one-size-fits-all mandatory exit policy in China, the number of excavator replacement in the future is estimated according to the domestic historical demand, and the service life of excavator is about 10 years. Assuming that the replacement demand of excavator in the T year is the average of T-9, T-10, and T-11 years, only considering the aging of the excavator, the current domestic replacement demand is still in the downward period, but considering the impact of environmental protection policy, electric technology iteration, and downstream heating drive, etc, It is expected to enter the upward cycle ahead of time.
Risk tips: The domestic market fell faster than expected, and the overseas market expansion was less than expected
