The fresh release of sales data in December 2022 finally brought an end to this year's ups and downs in the excavator market.
According to the latest statistics of the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, the 26 main engine manufacturers included in the statistics in 2022 sold 261346 sets of various mining machinery 名媛直播, which was the lowest value in the three years of the epidemic (2020-2022), with a year-on-year decrease of 23.8%. It became the first year in which the total sales volume of excavators turned negative since the industry hit the bottom in 2016 and entered the second round of upward cycle.
domestic market
Sales volume is the lowest since 2018
From January to December 2022, the sales volume of excavators in the domestic market was 151889, the lowest since 2018; The year-on-year decrease was 44.6%, which was the first time in the past seven years that the growth rate turned negative.
Among them, affected by the high base factor in the same period of 2021, combined with multiple factors such as the Spring Festival, the rebound of the epidemic situation, and the downward demand for equipment renewal, the downstream demand of the domestic excavator market was sluggish in the first quarter, with the sales volume of 51890 units, a year-on-year decrease of 54.3%, the largest decline in the four quarters of the year.
The new downward pressure on China's economy increased in the second quarter, resulting in a deep decline in excavator sales, with a total of 39238 units sold, a year-on-year decline of 51.0%. However, with the gradual dredging of the supply chain of the industrial chain, the enterprise's operating rate and capacity utilization rate continued to increase, and the effective implementation of the economic stabilization package policy had a positive impact on the domestic excavator sales, and the decline in excavator sales in the quarter began to narrow.
The third quarter entered the traditional off-season of excavator sales. The sales volume was 28866 units, down 25.2% year on year. Although the growth rate of sales was improved, the degree of stabilization was not enough, and the momentum for recovery was insufficient.
The sales volume fluctuated greatly in the fourth quarter due to the influence of the "National Fourth". With the approaching of the "National Fourth" emission standard, October and November, as the last window period of the "National Third" new equipment sales, ushered in a wave of sales climax, but also because of the advance of demand, so December failed to continue the overall recovery trend of the industry in recent months, and the year-on-year sales volume showed a precipitous decline of 60.1%. In addition, the overall domestic sales volume in the quarter was 31899 units, a year-on-year decrease of 24.1%, which continued to slow down compared with the previous quarters.
From the sales data of a single month, the peak of domestic excavator sales in 2022 occurred in March (26556 units), which is in line with the law of the traditional peak season of excavator sales. However, compared with 72968 units in the same period in 2021, this achievement can be described as a direct cut in half. It is worth noting that although March is the month with the highest sales volume in 2022, it is also the month with the lowest year-on-year growth rate (- 63.6%).
In addition, in the whole year of 2022, the year-on-year growth rate was positive only in November, which was the first time since April 2021, and decreased to different degrees in other months. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate in March, April and November decreased by more than 60%.
According to the number of Komatsu excavators operating hours reflecting the degree of infrastructure activity, in 2022, the cumulative operating time of Komatsu excavators in China was 1102.4 hours, down 12.3% year on year; The average monthly start time was 91.9 hours, down 12.2% year on year. Only in March, April, May and October of 2022 will Komatsu excavators be operated for more than 100 hours. In addition, only in February, the year-on-year growth rate of Komatsu excavator operating hours was positive (7.7%), and other months were negative. From the start hours of Komatsu excavator in 2022 and the domestic excavator sales data, the trend of the two is basically the same.
export market
Export sales account for more than 40% of total sales
Compared with the sluggish domestic sales of excavators in 2022, the performance of export sales of excavators in 2022 was significantly brighter, with 109457 excavators exported throughout the year, up 59.8% year on year. Among them, the cumulative export sales accounted for 41.9% of the total sales of the year, twice as much as 2021 (20.0%).
From the overall data of the whole year, there are four peaks in the export sales of excavators in 2022, all at the end of each quarter, that is, March, June, September and December. Among them, the export sales in March, September and December exceeded 10000 sets. From the perspective of the overall trend, the year-on-year growth rate of excavator export sales in 2022 showed a wave pattern of decline, and the growth rate gradually slowed down.
In 2022, the annual export sales of excavators can achieve a steady increase in the complex internal and external environment, which is not easy for the Chinese excavator market, which further proves that the export market is still an important driving force for the excavator industry to develop in depth.
For most people, the excavator market in 2022 is "uncertain". The demand contraction, supply shock, and weakening of expectations caused by the repeated epidemic in the 21st century and the adverse current of global development have made the whole excavator market encounter more complex and difficult than in 2021. The unexpected decline of the domestic market in December also made us realize that the domestic market of the excavator industry is still in the process of bottoming down. In addition, the structural changes in the entire excavator market caused by the excellent performance of the export market are also worthy of attention.
As for when we can get out of the quagmire of the downward cycle, many analysts have given their own answers. Without exception, we all have a positive attitude towards 2023. In the author's opinion, although the current valuation is at a low level in recent years, and the internal and external environment is still treacherous, the Chinese excavator market also shows the tenacity to move forward with more difficulties. It is believed that with the continuous optimization of the national epidemic prevention and control policy and the continuous deepening and promotion of the economic stability policy, the domestic excavator market will recover in 2023.
