On January 9, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate fell below the threshold of 500000 yuan, down about 22.83% from the peak in early November.
According to the data released by Shanghai Iron and Steel Union, on January 9, the price of some lithium battery materials fell, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate fell by 10000 yuan/ton to 492500 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate fell by 10000 yuan/ton to 460000 yuan/ton; Lithium hydroxide fell 7500 yuan/ton to 9000 yuan/ton.
Industry insiders believe that the supply and demand pattern of lithium carbonate in the future may still be in a tight balance, and the price reduction of lithium carbonate has not yet ended. The price of lithium carbonate will return to a more reasonable range in 2023, which will bring huge growth space for the middle and lower reaches of the industry. The energy storage, vehicle manufacturers, new energy vehicles and other industries are expected to accelerate development, and the industrial pattern will be more healthy.
Falling prices stimulate demand
In fact, since the late November 2022, the price of lithium carbonate has shown a continuous downward trend.
"The decline of lithium carbonate price for many days is mainly affected by the decline of subsidies for new energy vehicles and other demand-side factors, reflecting the market's short-term concern about the weakening of terminal demand." Chen Li, chief economist of Chuancai Securities, said in an interview with the reporter of Securities Daily.
Qu Yinfei, lithium industry analyst of Shanghai Ganglian New Energy Business Department, told Securities Daily, "The terminal production reduction led to a change in the mood of the market. Traders cleared the warehouse and delivered goods at a low price. The fall in demand also led to the obvious plant-to-factory trading game of enterprises. The downstream high price purchasing sentiment was extremely weak, the market transaction was cold, and the smelting factory delivery price was reduced simultaneously. In addition, the downstream small and medium-sized enterprises also had the behavior of selling goods. The increase in the spot resources on the market and the widening gap between supply and demand led to the continuous price decline."
From the perspective of the new energy automobile industry, the correction of lithium carbonate price is inseparable from the adjustment of supply and demand. Jiang Han, a senior researcher of Pangu think tank, said in an interview with the reporter of Securities Daily, "The current market demand is not as good as expected. The end of subsidies for new energy vehicles will weaken the overall demand in the first quarter of 2023 to a certain extent, which makes the downstream automobile enterprises and power battery manufacturers more cautious in the purchase of raw materials, leading to a market correction."
However, with the decline of lithium carbonate price, the costs in the middle and lower reaches of the new energy vehicle industry chain are continuously reduced, and it is expected to usher in opportunities.
Chen Li analyzed that the price of lithium carbonate fell, and the downward trend of the price of core materials such as superimposed anode processing fee, anode and electrolyte was clear, which means that the industry cost will significantly decline in the future, the profit margin of enterprises will improve, and there is more independent space on the price, which is expected to stimulate the recovery of the demand for new energy vehicles, and the demand for energy storage will further erupt. The lithium battery sector has a high medium and long-term growth.
Jiang Han believes that the reduction of costs will enhance the competitiveness of new energy vehicle enterprises and power battery enterprises, and more industrial opportunities in the middle and lower reaches will begin to emerge, which will help the better development of the whole industry.
Qi Haishen, president of Beijing Teyi Sunshine New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., agreed with this judgment. He believed that the falling price of lithium carbonate was beneficial to the overall health and sustainable development of the new energy automobile industry. "An appropriate fall in lithium price is conducive to the construction of emerging power systems and the stimulation of market demand for energy storage projects."
Different judgments on the price trend
Qu Yinfei believes that the main trend of lithium carbonate price in 2023 is still bearish, but there is no possibility of correction. Chen Li said that supported by downstream demand, the price of lithium carbonate fell by a limited margin.
Jiang Han believes that the price of lithium carbonate will fall to a certain extent in the future, but it is more likely to maintain a consolidation within a range. "With the gradual recovery of the overall market demand and supply, as well as the continuous improvement of lithium extraction technology in salt lakes, the supply and demand of lithium iron phosphate in 2023 will not be significantly unbalanced."
On January 6, Fengyuan Co., Ltd. publicly stated on the investor interaction platform that Shandong Fengyuan Lithium Energy Technology Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, plans to invest in the construction of 200000 tons of lithium battery high-energy cathode materials and supporting related projects in Yuxi City. The current project under construction is a phase I project: an annual output of 50000 tons of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials and 1000 tons of clay lithium extraction pilot line. Subsequent projects will be actively promoted according to the actual situation of phase I project construction.
Guoxuan Hi-Tech said recently that Yifeng Guoxuan Lithium Co., Ltd. is expected to put into production in April 2023 for the first phase of its 50000 tons of lithium carbonate project (25000 tons of annual output). At the same time, its supporting processing plant of 3 million tons of porcelain clay ore (containing lithium) is under construction at the same time, and is expected to be put into operation in May 2023.
Huaxi Securities expects that the production and operation of the new energy vehicle industry chain will gradually return to normal in February, the downstream demand is expected to improve, and the lithium salt price will gradually stabilize.
