Under the guidance of the "dual carbon" goal, with the release of the "1+N" policy system of carbon peaking and carbon neutralization in 2022, the low-carbon transformation path of energy, industry, transportation, construction and other industries becomes clearer.
In the field of energy and power, the top-level documents of the major policies in 2022, the "Fourteenth Five Year" Modern Energy System Plan and the "Fourteenth Five Year" Renewable Energy Development Plan, were implemented, further defining the target path of renewable energy technology, market, finance, and low-carbon development. According to the statistics of Polaris wind power generation network, there will be about 30 national policies involving energy and power, especially wind power, in 2022. A set of policy system supports will be formed from top-level planning, development mode, market trading, innovative technology, safety management, financial investment and other aspects, which will guide the development trend and path of renewable energy represented by wind power in 2023. Polaris wind power grid has also formed 6 major trends of market development in the next year through summary, with a view to providing certain reference and reference for the industry.
Trend 1: Technological innovation continues to rise
In 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission, the National Energy Administration and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued at least four policies related to the innovative development of energy equipment. Among them, the "Key Tasks of Wind Power" mentioned in the "Fourteenth Five Year Plan for Scientific and Technological Innovation in the Energy Field" - to develop offshore wind power in far-reaching sea areas and super large offshore wind turbine technology; Breakthrough in the design and manufacturing technology of key components such as super long blades, large structural parts, converters, spindle bearings, and main controllers; Develop integrated design technology and advanced testing technology for 15 MW and Shanghai Shangfeng wind turbines.
In August, the Action Plan for Accelerating the Green and Low Carbon Innovative Development of Electric Power Equipment was released, proposing to focus on the development of onshore wind turbines above 8MW, offshore wind turbines above 13MW and offshore floating wind power equipment. Breakthrough in super large sea breeze supporting structure, main bearing and key power module of converter.
It can be seen that after entering parity, technological innovation has become the only way to promote high-quality development of domestic wind power. In 2022, domestic wind power enterprises will make breakthroughs in wind turbine power rating, blade length and new material application. At present, the largest onshore 7.XMW wind turbine in China has been successfully hoisted in Northeast China, and the largest offshore H260-18MW wind turbine will also go offline, leading the development direction of global wind power.
Prior to this, SSE Renewables, a British energy company, submitted Ireland's 4.1GW offshore wind power plan, and proposed to use wind turbines with impeller diameters of 310m. At present, the offshore units with the largest impeller diameter in the world are from China's offshore H260-18MW units and Mingyang Intelligent 16MW offshore units. From the perspective of the global wind power development trend, the future model capacity will continue to increase, and the large-scale unit and supporting research and development will still be the innovation direction in the next few years.
Trend 2: simultaneous development of decentralized and large bases
In October 2021, China formally proposed at the 15th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Convention on Biological Diversity to accelerate the planning and construction of large-scale wind power photovoltaic base projects in desert, Gobi and desert areas. Soon, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Energy Administration followed up and released the Notice on Printing and Distributing the List of the First Batch of Large Wind Power Photovoltaic Base Construction Projects Focusing on Desert, Gobi and Desert Areas, and released the list of the first batch of scenery base construction projects with a total scale of 97.05GW. In several top-level plans for renewable energy development released since then, it has been repeatedly mentioned to accelerate the development and construction of the "Sago Wasteland" large base model.
At present, the construction of the first batch of large-scale scenic bases in China has been started, the second batch of projects are being started in succession, and the third batch of projects are also being promoted.
It is worth noting that the Fourteenth Five Year Plan for Modern Energy System emphasizes "giving play to the supporting regulatory role of coal power". In the future, the "Shagehuang" renewable energy base will pay more attention to the supporting role of coal power, and build a "new energy supply and consumption system based on large wind power bases, supported by clean, efficient, advanced and energy-saving coal power around, and supported by stable, safe and reliable ultra-high voltage power transmission and transformation lines".
The planning and construction of distributed energy is another trend that cannot be ignored. In January 2022, the National Energy Administration and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued the Implementation Opinions on Accelerating the Transformation and Development of Rural Energy to Boost Rural Revitalization, and in the Action Plan for Rural Construction issued by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council in May, they proposed to implement the rural clean energy construction project and promote the construction of distributed wind power and photovoltaic in appropriate areas. This means that under the background that rural revitalization has become one of the themes of the "14th Five Year Plan" and even the "15th Five Year Plan", decentralized wind power will also gain significant development opportunities, especially in areas with good access conditions and consumption, and decentralized wind power development similar to the "whole county photovoltaic" development model will also enter the exploration and implementation stage.
Trend 3: Launch of floating new market
By the end of 2021, two domestic floating wind power projects with great demonstration significance, namely, the Three Gorges Energy "Leading" and the CSIC "Fuyao", will be completed. Among them, "Fuyao", with a water depth of 65 meters, created the first domestic floating offshore wind power in deep and distant seas.
However, at present, China's floating offshore wind power industry is relatively weak, with few R&D manufacturers, which is also one of the reasons for the single type, high cost and insufficient supply chain of the above two demonstration projects.
The Fourteenth Five Year Plan for Scientific and Technological Innovation in the Energy Field also pointed out that it is necessary to break through the survey, design and installation technology of offshore wind power in deep sea areas, research and develop the integrated design, construction and construction technology of offshore and deep-water floating wind turbine foundations, and develop the integrated fixed wind turbine installation technology and new floating pile foundations that meet the characteristics of China's oceans.
On December 26, 2022, the construction of the largest commercial floating project in Hainan Wanning indicates that the domestic floating wind power has set sail. The commencement of the project will certainly drive and cultivate the development of floating wind power equipment and domestic industrial chain capabilities, and promote the construction of the domestic floating technology system.
Trend 4: further marketization
In January 2022, the Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Construction of a National Unified Power Market System proposed to realize the full participation of new energy in market transactions by 2030. We will orderly promote new energy to participate in power market transactions, guide new energy to sign long-term contracts, and encourage distributed photovoltaic, decentralized wind power and other entities to directly trade with surrounding users.
In May, the Notice of the Comprehensive Department of the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration on Accelerating the Construction of the Spot Power Market was released, proposing to establish a trading mechanism suitable for the characteristics of new energy, to meet the flexible adjustment needs of new energy on the contract electricity quantity and curve, and to encourage new energy to participate in the spot market in the form of price difference contracts.
This means that in the future, the proportion of new wind power projects participating in market-oriented transactions will continue to increase. Under the guarantee purchase policy, the wind power price will be divided into fixed price and transaction price, and the proportion of transaction price will continue to increase. Participation in the power market has become a key step in the marketization of renewable energy power generation.
At the same time, the introduction of a series of policies represented by the quota system, including both mandatory green power consumption indicators and market-oriented incentive policies, together with the in-depth development of the power market, has pushed the energy storage industry into the fast lane of development. At present, there are more than 30 provinces and cities that have issued the policy of joint development of new energy distribution, storage and energy. In the future, as the proportion of new energy participating in power market transactions increases, the difference between peak and valley of regional electricity consumption will become larger and larger. Energy storage will also play a more important role in peak regulation and frequency regulation, and the peak valley price difference income model will be more applied.
However, it should be noted that the biggest shackle of new energy+energy storage is that the utilization efficiency and frequency of energy storage on the power side, as well as the cost dredging mechanism of energy storage are still imperfect.
Trend 5: Asset management becomes more important
Under the carbon peak and carbon neutral targets, the use of market mechanisms to control and reduce greenhouse gas emissions has become an important means to support the achievement of the dual carbon targets.
On February 1, 2021, the Measures for the Administration of Carbon Emission Trading (for Trial Implementation) will be officially implemented; In July 2021, the national carbon market will be opened for trading. On that day, the first batch of trading entities will be more than 2000 power generation enterprises accounting for more than 40% of the national carbon emissions. The average transaction price on the first day will be 51.23 yuan/ton, with a turnover of 4104000 tons.
The carbon market promotes the optimization of energy conservation and emission reduction of enterprises by playing the role of market mechanism. When the actual emissions of enterprises are higher than the quota, they need to purchase the surplus emission quota of other enterprises in the market; On the contrary, those green power enterprises can go to the carbon market to sell their emission quotas. It can be said that "carbon assets" have become an equally important form of assets for energy and power enterprises in addition to equipment assets. It can not only help energy and power enterprises to practice "double carbon" from the perspective of energy conservation and emission reduction, but also generate a lot of income through carbon market transactions in this process.
At present, carbon asset management and tapping carbon value have become compulsory courses for energy and power enterprises. Although the scale of China's carbon emission trading market is not large at present, with the implementation of the national carbon emission trading market, the institution predicts that the cumulative trading volume of China's carbon market is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan by 2030. In addition, more carbon financial 名媛直播 such as carbon fund and carbon quota pledge will appear in the future market to find and stabilize the price of carbon, which will help further strengthen the liquidity of the carbon market and promote the maturity of the entire market.
The data shows that the wind power asset transaction will continue to be active in the first half of 2022, with the transaction scale increasing by 60% over the same period of 2021. The injection of various funds into the new energy industry has also brought an obvious trend. The new energy production and operation has changed from a single equipment maintenance to a multi asset management category for new energy fixed assets, production, operation and maintenance, labor costs and other aspects, and from equipment operation and maintenance to a management logic with electricity price income as the indicator.
This has put forward higher requirements for the equipment quality, operation and maintenance capacity, and technical service level of wind power generation enterprises, and has driven the rapid development of the post wind power service market. According to the China Post Market Development Report 2022, it is estimated that the post wind power market capacity in China will exceed 65 billion yuan by 2025, and it is preliminarily estimated that the cumulative capacity of wind turbine units in need of transformation and retirement in China will exceed 60 million kilowatts from 2021 to 2030. The post market services represented by operation and maintenance management, hosting services and equipment upgrading will achieve considerable development.
Trend 6: Green finance
In June 2022, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the Notice on Further Improving the Pilot Work of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) in the Infrastructure Field, which defines clean energy projects such as wind power, photovoltaic, hydropower and ultra-high voltage power transmission projects in the energy infrastructure field. In October, the National Development and Reform Commission also proposed to encourage private enterprises to increase investment in energy conservation and carbon reduction fields such as solar power generation, wind power, biomass power generation and energy storage in the Opinions on Further Improving the Policy Environment and Strengthening Support for the Development of Private Investment.
In March 2021, the first "carbon neutral" asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP) in the national inter-bank market was launched. The product has a distribution scale of 1.75 billion yuan, and the raised funds will be used to support clean energy projects such as wind power, hydropower and photovoltaic.
In November 2021, the Central Bank launched the structural monetary policy tool "Carbon Emission Reduction Support Tool", which aims to leverage more social funds and support the development of key areas such as clean energy in a precise and direct way. Yi Gang, the governor of the People's Bank of China, also said that there are many estimates on the capital demand for achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality in all aspects, and the scale level is one million billion yuan. Such a huge demand for funds, government funds can only cover a small part of the gap needs to be made up by market funds.
Since the withdrawal of subsidies, renewable energy development is being included in more market-oriented funds such as national green development funds, REITs and green bonds. At the same time, in 2022, the wind power sector also continued to gain the attention of the capital market. In the past two years, more than 20 listed enterprises in the upstream, middle and downstream of the wind power industry chain were added, and the total market value of the wind power sector reached 4.7 trillion yuan.
National subsidies for new energy have become history. Under the dual carbon target, new energy has become an investment direction that financial institutions pay more attention to. With the further expansion of the market, new energy investment and financing will inevitably become more active.
