During the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October," the construction machinery industry continued its recovery trend this year, with excavator sales maintaining steady growth in October, and exports performing particularly well. However, in stark contrast to the "warm" data, frontline practitioners generally report that "the industry is still in a cold winter." Where did this seemingly impressive growth go?
Let's look at the data first. According to statistics from the China Construction Machinery Association, 18,096 excavators of various types were sold in October 2025, a year-on-year increase of 7.77%. This growth benefited from strong government investment, continued efforts in equipment replacement policies, and robust demand in overseas markets, but the growth rate slowed compared to previous months.
The domestic market saw a moderate recovery, with 8,468 units sold in October, a year-on-year increase of 2.44%. Except for slight declines in January and May, it has achieved positive year-on-year growth for nearly a year, reflecting that demand in downstream sectors such as domestic infrastructure construction, real estate, and mining is in a slow recovery phase.
The international market is booming, with exports reaching 9,628 units in October, a year-on-year increase of 12.9%. Export growth significantly outpaced domestic growth, marking the 15th consecutive month of positive year-on-year growth. Exports once again surpassed domestic sales, becoming the core driver of overall growth for the month.
Looking ahead to the first ten months of 2025, the recovery trend is equally clear. From January to October 2025, cumulative excavator sales reached 192,135 units, a year-on-year increase of 17%. Domestic sales reached 98,345 units, a year-on-year increase of 19.60%, exceeding the overall growth rate, indicating stronger rebound momentum in the domestic market. Exports reached 93,790 units, a year-on-year increase of 14.40%. Although the growth rate was slightly lower than domestic growth, total exports are approaching domestic sales volume.
Can excavator sales continue to climb? Industry insiders are generally confident.
Pacific Securities points out that on August 7th, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) released the "Guidelines for Publicly Offered Infrastructure Securities Investment Funds (Trial)," which will support the broadening of financing channels and reduction of financing costs for infrastructure projects. Sales in the construction machinery industry are expected to continue to exceed expectations in the second half of the year.
Guotai Haitong Research states that overseas performance has been outstanding in this round of construction machinery recovery. Trade friction risks are manageable, most Chinese construction machinery manufacturers have relatively low exposure to the US, and they continue to deepen their presence in Southeast Asia, Europe, and South America. They are optimistic about the industry growth brought about by this recovery cycle.
Domestic sales of excavators have seen impressive growth, seemingly indicating a renewed boom. However, those working on the front lines don't feel the full impact; actual end-user demand hasn't felt this warm current. The most direct manifestation is that while domestic sales have increased year-on-year, the terminal operating rate and actual equipment utilization rate have not increased significantly in tandem.
Why is the growth not being felt? One reason is the current excessive number of excavators in operation. From 2008 to 2017, excavator sales were approximately 1.08 million units, while from 2016 to the present, sales have reached approximately 1.6 million units. Under this pressure of existing inventory, excavator users and industry professionals find it difficult to feel the growth momentum.
Another reason is that current sales growth is mainly driven by small excavators, which now account for as much as 77% of the market, approaching the proportion in mature markets in Europe and America. However, most of the domestic small excavator sales chain is operating at a loss, and large excavators are mostly sold directly by manufacturers. Mid-sized excavator operators, truly embroiled in market competition, are still struggling to survive amidst price wars and homogeneous competition.
Despite the positive sales figures, the industry as a whole still feels the chill. The recovery of the excavator market is not just about increased sales, but a comprehensive process driven by structural optimization, profit restoration, and genuine demand. Only when the overall market recovers in tandem can the positive sentiment translate into real-world growth.
