The market research in the circulation field of construction machinery in China will be conducted from November 9 to 15, 2022. The excavator models in the following report are: small excavator ≤ 18.5t, medium excavator 18.5t~28.5t, and large excavator ≥ 28.5t; The provinces covered by each region are: East China (Anhui, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Fujian, Shanghai), South China (Guangxi, Guangdong, Hainan), Central China (Hubei, Hunan, Henan), North China (Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia), Southwest China (Sichuan, Chongqing, Yunnan, Guizhou, Tibet), Northwest China (Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia, Qinghai, Xinjiang), Northeast China (Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang).
Expected feedback of domestic excavator market in November 2022
1. Year on year growth expectation of overall sales
85.13% of the agents expect that the domestic excavator market will decline to varying degrees year-on-year in November 2022, and 14.86% of the investigated agents expect a decline of more than 50%, a decrease of 7.64 percentage points over the previous month; 13.51%, 12.16%, 18.92% and 25.68% of the surveyed agents are expected to decline 41% - 50%, 31% - 40%, 21% - 30% and 0% - 20% year on year respectively. 5.41% and 9.46% of the agents are expected to remain flat and grow year on year. On the whole, the market expectation in November is slightly better than that in October, but the overall domestic market is still in the process of bottoming down.
2. YOY growth forecast of small excavator sales
82.43% of the agents predicted that the domestic small digging market in November had declined to varying degrees year on year. 18.92% of the investigated agents are expected to decline by more than 50% year on year, and 6.76%, 12.16%, 18.92% and 25.67% of the investigated agents are expected to decline by 41% - 50%, 31% - 40%, 21% - 30% and 0% - 20% year on year respectively. 10.81% and 6.76% of the agents expect the small excavation market to be flat and growing year on year in November.
3. Year on year growth forecast of medium-sized excavator sales
82.41% of the agents predicted that the domestic medium mining market in November had declined to varying degrees year on year, a decrease of 12.59 percentage points over the previous month. 16.21% of agents are expected to decline more than 50% year on year, and 14.86%, 13.51%, 14.86% and 22.97% of agents are expected to decline 41% - 50%, 31% - 40%, 21% - 30% and 0% - 20% year on year. 8.11% and 9.48% of the agents are expected to remain flat and grow year on year.
4. Year on year growth forecast of large excavator sales
89.19% of the agents predicted that the domestic market in November had declined to varying degrees year on year, down 7.06 percentage points from the previous month. 16.21% of agents are expected to decline more than 50% year on year, and 18.92%, 9.46%, 20.27% and 24.33% of agents are expected to decline 41% - 50%, 31% - 40%, 21% - 30% and 0% - 20% year on year respectively. 2.70% and 8.11% of the agents are expected to be flat or slightly increased year on year.
5. Statistics of operating rate of customer equipment in November 2022
In the first ten days of November 2022, 23.61% of the surveyed customers' equipment operating rate was lower than 40%, 1.39 percentage points worse than the end of October; 20.83% of the surveyed customers' equipment operating rate exceeded 60%, an increase of 2.78 percentage points; The proportion of customers with 50%~60% operating rate was 23.61%, a decrease of 5.56 percentage points. In the first ten days of November, compared with the end of October, the operating rate of customers' equipment in all regions was improving. The medium to high operating rate (more than 60%) was the best since June this year, accounting for more than 20%. However, the proportion of ultra-low operating rate equipment is still close to a quarter.
6. In November 2022, it is expected that the year-on-year change of new orders for complete machine sales
79.73% of the investigated agents predicted that the new orders for complete machine sales in November 2022 would decrease year on year, a significant improvement of 9.02 percentage points over the previous month, and 20.27% of the investigated agents predicted that the new orders for complete machine sales would increase year on year.
Monitoring feedback of domestic excavator market price in October 2022
In October 2022, the sales transaction price of domestic excavators will change month on month
In October 2022, in the domestic excavator market, the sales transaction price of large excavators will decrease by 2.78% month on month compared with September, and the decrease will be 0.56 percentage points less than that of last month; The sales transaction price of medium-sized excavators decreased by 1.63% month on month compared with September, and the decrease rate was 1.60 percentage points higher than that of the previous month; The selling price of small excavators decreased by 0.30% month on month, with a decrease of 0.58 percentage points.
Feedback on domestic excavator market inventory in the first ten days of November 2022
In the first ten days of November 2022, in the domestic market, the inventory of the investigated agents in the channel increased by 28.57% over the same period of the previous month; Among them, the average inventory of large excavators above 30T increased by 7 units over the previous period, the average inventory of medium-sized excavators between 19-30T remained unchanged month on month, and the average inventory of small excavators below 19T increased by 4 units month on month.
Risk feedback of domestic construction machinery market from October to November 2022
1. Statistics on overdue rate of customer financing, mortgage or installment in October 2022
At the end of October 2022, in the domestic market, the overdue rates of Phase 1, Phase 2 and Phase 3 of financing, mortgage or installment payments of the investigated customers were 6.97%, 5.74% and 6.01% on average, respectively, an increase of 0.01, 0.28 and 1.09 percentage points over the end of last month. The medium and short-term overdue rates were relatively stable, but the overdue rates of Phase 3 deteriorated slightly. In terms of overdue rate, Beijing, Tianjin, Zhejiang, Guangxi, Hubei, Hunan, Guizhou and other places have witnessed some high-risk situations where the overdue rate has increased.
2. In November 2022, the expected judgment of overdue rate of customer repayment
In November 2022, 70.27% of the investigated agents predicted that the overdue rate of customers' repayment would increase compared with October, and 29.73% of the investigated agents predicted that the overdue rate of customers' repayment would decrease month on month, with the former's proportion slightly decreasing by 0.98 percentage points compared with the previous month.
3. In October 2022, statistics of customer's equipment project payment collection rate
At the end of October 2022, the average value of the customer's payment collection rate for equipment engineering is 52.56%, a slight deterioration of 1.32 percentage points over the same period of the previous month, with the maximum value of 95% and the minimum value of 5%, which are flat and increased by 5 percentage points respectively. The customer's payment collection has deteriorated slightly in the short term.
Compared with the first ten days of October and November, the payment collection in North China and South China has improved month on month. In Jilin, Jiangxi, Shandong, Zhejiang, Henan, Hunan, Gansu, Ningxia, Qinghai and Chongqing, the rate of customer equipment payment collection has deteriorated significantly.
4. Statistics of changes in customer equipment shift cost from October to November, 2022
In October 2022, the shift fee income of customer's equipment decreased by 5.45% year on year for large excavators, 4.37% year on year for medium excavators, and 3.06% year on year for small excavators, 0.63, 0.81, and 0.94 percentage points worse than that of the previous month, respectively. The shift fee income of large, medium, and small excavators deteriorated slightly.
