The "Fourteenth Five Year Plan" is the key period and window period to implement the "double carbon" goal. What impact will the "double carbon" target have on the development of new energy? How will new energy be positioned in energy supply guarantee, new energy system and new power system? How to rationally view the leaping development of new energy? It has been controversial for many years.
Personally, under the "dual carbon" goal, new energy development opportunities outweigh challenges, and has an extremely important strategic position in clean transformation, energy security, and economic development. If energy is the main battlefield (80%) and electricity is the main force (40%) to tackle climate change and achieve the goal of "double carbon", then new energy is the "strong force". Moreover, new energy is the "basic way" to promote the iterative upgrading of the power generation industry, the "main energy" to build a new power system, the "living force" to ensure China's energy security, and also a "new growth engine" to lead China's economic development as a strategic emerging industry.
At present, under the multiple objectives of energy supply guarantee, stable economic growth, achieving the "double carbon" goal, and creating a world-class enterprise, the reason why China's new energy has leapfrog development and the establishment of new energy strategic positioning is determined by the fact that the development of new energy is different from high carbon fossil energy, which is epochal, low-carbon, economic, growth, leading, and subjective, and its opportunities are greater than challenges.
1、 It is the basic law of energy development that new energy replaces traditional energy. At the same time, the green and low-carbon transformation of energy is a global consensus and concerted action.
At present, the use of energy in human society has gone through the era of firewood energy, is going through the era of fossil energy dominated by coal to oil and gas, and has entered the era of clean energy dominated by wind, solar, hydropower, nuclear, geothermal, tidal and other renewable energy. Moreover, the low-carbon transformation of energy mainly relies on renewable energy to replace fossil energy, which is different from the two energy transformations in history, namely, the steam engine in 1776-1830 promoted coal to replace firewood, and the electric power and internal combustion engine in 1880-1930 promoted oil and gas development.
The new energy represented by wind power is green and low-carbon renewable energy. The average carbon emission intensity of wind power in the world announced by IPCC is only 12g/kWh and 48g/kWh respectively, which is very small compared with high carbon fossil energy. At present, the development of new energy is catching up with the opportunity of the era of global response to climate change, clean energy transformation and common realization of the "double carbon" goal. In the Glasgow Climate Convention reached in 2021, all countries agreed to "gradually reduce" the use of carbon free coal capture and storage. At present, more than 140 countries and regions have defined the carbon neutral schedule, the earliest is 2030, and China is 2060.
Under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, even in the event of economic recession and energy crisis in Europe in 2022, clean transformation is still a general trend and will not be shaken by temporary fluctuations. Although the EU said that member states could stay on coal for a longer time, or adopt unified negotiation, joint procurement, single market and quota supply for oil and gas to reduce their dependence on Russian gas, it still passed the Renewable Energy Development Act in September. By 2030, renewable energy will account for 45% of the final energy consumption, and the goal of "Fit for 55" will remain unchanged. The German Cabinet adopted the "Easter Plan", which plans that 80% of the electricity will be provided by renewable energy by 2030 (currently about 42%), and almost all electricity will be provided by renewable energy by 2035.
2、 China's new energy not only has a bright "main energy" orientation, but also has formulated a grand "strategic goal", and the actual development is beyond expectations.
After more than ten years of development, new energy in China has changed from "insignificant" to "pivotal" in the national power system. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, China's renewable energy has maintained a rapid annual growth of 13%, while new energy has grown faster, with an average annual growth of 28%. The development of new energy in the 13th Five Year Plan far exceeded expectations, reaching 530 million kilowatts in 2025, 1.66 times the planned target. By the end of 2021, the installed capacity of new energy will be 640 million kilowatts, accounting for 27% of the national installed capacity; The annual power generation exceeded 1 trillion kilowatt hours (1.14 trillion) for the first time, basically equivalent to the domestic electricity consumption, accounting for 13.7% of the total social electricity consumption. At present, China's installed capacity of renewable energy power generation accounts for 1/3 of the world's total, wind power accounts for 40% of the world's total, and photovoltaic accounts for 36% of the world's total. The newly installed capacity of wind power in China accounts for about half of the world's total annually. The "new energy revolution" first proposed by the United States in 2008 was the first to bear fruit in China.
In the future, new energy will play an important role in energy supply guarantee and new power system. The "Fourteenth Five Year Plan" for Modern Energy System formulated by the state requires enhancing the security and stability of the energy supply chain and putting the construction of supply capacity in the first place. The most important "one hand" is to do a good job in increasing the supply of wind, light, water, nuclear and other clean energy supply systems, accelerate the implementation of renewable energy substitution action, and continue to expand the supply of clean energy. In 2021, the State Council issued the Notice on the Action Plan for Carbon Peak by 2030, which clearly defined "building a new power system with a gradually increasing proportion of new energy and promoting the optimal allocation of clean power resources in a large scale"; The Opinions on Completely, Accurately and Comprehensively Implementing the New Development Concept and Doing a Good Job of Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutralization issued by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council clearly states that "building a new power system with new energy as the main body will improve the power grid's ability to absorb and regulate high proportion of renewable energy". At the same time, the country has also determined the main strategic objectives of each stage: by 2025, the proportion of non fossil energy consumption will reach about 20%; By 2030, the proportion of non fossil energy consumption will reach about 25%, and the total installed capacity of wind power and solar power will reach more than 1.2 billion kilowatts; By 2060, the proportion of non fossil energy consumption will reach more than 80%, and the goal of carbon neutrality will be successfully achieved.
According to the target of 1.2 billion kilowatts or more of wind power in 2030, the annual additional installed capacity of wind power will not be less than 74 million kilowatts. The "Fourteenth Five Year Plan" target proposed by China Wind Energy Association and China Photovoltaic Association is the annual increase of 120 to 140 million kilowatts, and the new energy will reach 1.13 to 12.3 billion kilowatts by 2025. It is understood that the new energy development target set by 17 major energy and power central enterprises during the "14th Five Year Plan" is 670 million kilowatts. Even excluding other development entities, the new energy will reach 1.2 billion kilowatts in 2025. Therefore, it is estimated that the new energy will increase the installed capacity by more than 100 million kilowatts every year, which will be the norm. By 2030, the goal of 1.2 billion kilowatts or more of wind power is likely to be achieved ahead of schedule. Moreover, according to the prediction of relevant experts, the installed capacity of wind power will exceed 50% of the total installed capacity by 2035, and the wind power generation will exceed 50% of the total power generation from 2045 to 2050. The positioning of new energy as the "main energy" will emerge.
3、 New energy has rich resource advantages and has built a world leading whole industry chain.
According to the statistics of the Wind Energy Association, China has huge reserves of wind energy resources, with more than 5.1 billion kilowatts of technology available for development at a height of 140 meters on land and about 400 million kilowatts of technology available for development at a height of 100 meters in the sea with a depth of 50 meters. Dayang energy resources are inexhaustible. More than 2/3 of the country's regions have 2000 hours of annual sunshine, and the Qinghai Tibet Plateau is the highest in the country. It can be seen that China's new energy development is different from hydropower, and its potential is still great.
It is particularly gratifying that China's wind power industry has a complete whole industry chain and integrated manufacturing system, has formed a mature industry chain covering development and construction, equipment manufacturing, technology research and development, testing and certification, and supporting services, and has become the world's largest wind power equipment manufacturing base. Among the top ten fan manufacturers in the world, China has 6. Similarly, the international competitive advantage of the photovoltaic industry chain has become more prominent. The global market share of photovoltaic links has exceeded 70%, the silicon chip link has reached 96%, and the module link has reached 76%. The output of photovoltaic modules has ranked first in the world for 15 consecutive years; The output of polysilicon has ranked first in the world for 11 consecutive years. Among the top ten photovoltaic manufacturing enterprises in the world, China has 7.
4、 With the continuous improvement of new energy technology and equipment, growth and economy, wind power and solar power have the advantage of competing with thermal power.
Wind power generation is "the most mature, large-scale development and commercial development prospect power generation method in renewable energy power generation technology". It has formed several mature technical routes of low wind speed, low temperature, plateau and offshore, and the trend of large-scale unit is obvious. The mainstream model of wind power has been upgraded from 750 kilowatts in 2000 to 3 megawatts, and the single offshore wind power has reached 15 megawatts. At present, there are nearly 50 new models. The single machine has reached the world's largest 16 megawatts, the latest wind turbine diameter is 256 meters, and the maximum hub height is more than 170 meters. IT technology and digital modeling are used to improve the operation level of the fan. In 2020, the comprehensive guidance electricity price of onshore wind power will be 0.37 yuan/kWh, an average decrease of 34% compared with 0.56 yuan/kWh in 2009, and a decrease of 43% for category I.
Similarly, photovoltaic power generation has achieved from polycrystalline to single crystal, and the cell efficiency has continued to improve. The conversion efficiency of single crystal cells in mass production has reached 23.1%, breaking the world record many times. At present, the cost of PV per kilowatt is about 4000 yuan, accounting for only 20% of that in 2010. The grid price has dropped from 4 yuan in 2008 to 30 cents now, a drop of more than 90%.
Compared with the traditional coal power and gas turbine power generation, in addition to flexibility, the advantages of low carbon, economy, growth and leadership of wind power are increasingly prominent. It not only realizes the access to the Internet at par, but also becomes more and more competitive in the power market.
5、 New energy has diversified investment subjects and a good level of return on investment.
In the field of new energy, the investment and financing environment is loose, the national policy encourages, the market threshold is low, and the project investment is not large. Compared with coal power, gas power and other fossil energy social capital, they have the most extensive and largest participation. Especially since the "double carbon" goal was proposed, in addition to the "five big and six small" state-owned energy power enterprises, private small and medium-sized enterprise developers and non energy power development entities have become more and more, showing a good atmosphere of diversified entities, capital concentration, technological innovation, market competition and leapfrog development.
The performance in recent years shows that the annual profit per kilowatt of new energy is second only to that of nuclear power, regardless of hydropower, but significantly better than fossil energy such as coal power and gas power. In the 13th Five Year Plan period, the contribution of new energy to profits increased significantly. From 2016 to 2020, the proportion of new energy profits of the five major power generation groups in the electricity profits of the same period increased from 14.4% to 45.2%, averaging 43.7%. In 2021, new energy has become the largest profit source in the power generation industry. The coal power sector of the five major power generation groups has suffered a loss of 136 billion yuan in power generation and heating, and the clean power sector has achieved a profit of 123.2 billion yuan, including 64.1 billion yuan in wind power, ranking first in hydropower, nuclear power, gas and electricity.
The reason why the performance of State Power Investment has achieved "curve overtaking" among the five major power generation groups and withstood the huge impact of soaring coal prices is precisely due to the transformation to a modern clean low-carbon energy enterprise in recent years and the full development of wind power. At present, the installed capacity of new energy and renewable energy of National Power Investment ranks first in the world, and the installed capacity of clean energy accounts for more than 60%, which reflects the competitive advantage of "the leader of clean transformation" and has become the "vane" of clean energy transformation in the power generation industry.
6、 Serious losses and poor prospects of coal power have forced the rapid development of new energy.
Entering the "Fourteenth Five Year Plan", due to the sharp rise in coal prices, the limited transmission of electricity prices, and the serious distortion of the relationship between coal and electricity prices, the national coal power management situation is grim. In 2021, the loss of national coal power enterprises will reach 100% at the highest level, and still reach more than 80% at the end of the year, with a loss of more than 300 billion yuan. In the first half of 2022, it will improve, but the loss will continue. Due to the implementation of the "three 100%" of the medium and long-term contract of power coal and 20% of the electricity price, the loss of coal and power has improved compared with the second half of last year, but it still increased the loss and reduced the profit compared with the same period of last year. The loss of coal and power is still more than 60%, resulting in high debt ratio, shortage of cash flow, weakened investment and financing functions, and decreased corporate credit rating.
In addition, coal and electricity belong to high carbon energy, and green credit financing is difficult; The cost of fuel and transformation is rising rapidly, and the relative competitiveness is weakened; The strategic positioning of coal power has changed, and the national supporting policies have lagged behind; The coal power industry is at the bottom of the loss and the prospect is not optimistic. In the near future, it will inevitably lead to a "drop" in the willingness of some coal power enterprises to generate electricity and invest. In 2021, only 47.79 million kilowatts (26.99 million kilowatts) of thermal power will be added; From January to September 2022, the installed capacity of thermal power will increase by 23.58 million kilowatts (11.93 million kilowatts of coal), a year-on-year decrease of 8.88 million kilowatts. In personal judgment, the overall environment will force power generation groups dominated by coal and electricity to accelerate the pace of clean energy transformation, and the new investment will focus on new energy, hydropower, nuclear power and biomass power generation to achieve sustainable development and the goal of "dual carbon".
It can be seen that the new energy development is characterized by obvious economy, strong growth, natural green and low-carbon, leading the clean transformation of energy. It has the strategic positioning of "main energy" in the future new power system, and belongs to a strategic emerging industry in China. It will have obvious opportunities of the times and greater development space, and has become the "investment hotspot" of China's capital market One of the "main carriers" of clean energy transformation and "growth engines" of stabilizing the economic market. Obviously, it is not advisable to underestimate the speed of clean energy transformation, deny the opportunities and development achievements of the new energy era, deny the positive role of new energy in China's clean transformation, energy supply and support for economic development, and deny the green value, performance contribution of new energy and the role of ensuring the sustainable development of the power generation industry. Of course, it is not advisable to overestimate the development value of new energy, deny the "pillar" and "ballast" role of coal power in energy supply assurance in the near and medium term, and deny the "main regulating standby power supply" and "key supporting force" of clean energy transformation.
Therefore, when we see the high speed, low carbon value and good prospects of new energy development, we should also realistically analyze the limitations of new energy, the development pressure brought by the current "white hot" competition situation, and the risks and challenges faced by participating in power market transactions.
——New energy is random, fluctuating, intermittent, uncontrollable, with low effective capacity. How to unify and coordinate the green low-carbon transformation of energy and the safe and reliable supply of energy, especially when the output of new energy is insufficient or zero in extreme weather. Objectively speaking, the new energy is mainly to provide clean electricity, which is still difficult to undertake the heavy task of power supply guarantee, and it is very easy to cause the power gap problem due to the superposition of low output of new energy and peak load. In 2021, power rationing will occur in China. Although the shortage of electricity and coal supply and the overall loss of coal and electricity are the main reasons, the insufficient output of new energy and hydropower is also a factor that cannot be ignored. Similarly, this year, due to extreme weather conditions in Sichuan, power cuts were triggered, that is, high temperature and drought led to a sharp increase in power load and a sharp decrease in hydropower and wind power output. As a large hydropower province, Sichuan has a single power supply structure, depends on the weather, lacks local power supply support, and is not fully connected to power grids in other provinces.
——The new energy resource endowment and energy demand are inversely distributed. There is a contradiction between large-scale development on the power generation side, high proportion (trans provincial) consumption on the grid side, and safe and stable economic operation of the power system, especially in the "Three North Area". Moreover, the power system will present the characteristics of "double highs and double peaks". The power system will face a series of new changes and challenges in supply and demand balance, system regulation, stability characteristics, distribution network operation, control and protection, and construction costs.
——Some old and new energy projects have lagged in state subsidies (the top 10 new energy development enterprises have totaled 377 billion yuan). The new projects will cancel the state subsidies, enter the era of parity in all respects, be implemented according to the local benchmark price of coal-fired power generation, or voluntarily participate in market-oriented transactions to form a grid price, which will weaken the future profitability and investment and financing functions of new energy, especially offshore wind power.
——The risks and challenges caused by the rapid development of new energy and "white hot" competition are highlighted as disorderly competition, price war, rush to install, resource mismatch, unbalanced layout, insufficient consumption, project blocking, ecological red line, especially the problems such as the rising price of equipment components, land and sea restrictions, lagging grid access and transmission, and local requirements for supporting industries, which lead to the increase of non-technical costs of new energy and affect long-term development.
——It is a general trend for new energy to fully participate in power market transactions before 2030. How to prevent the "three risks" of price stampede, curve fluctuation and deviation assessment, build a power market mechanism suitable for the high proportion of new energy scenarios, effectively connect with the carbon market, not only bear the operating costs of the power system, but also reflect the value of green electricity needs further research and exploration.
The limitations of the above new energy "relying on the weather" and the various risks and challenges faced by it urgently need to further improve the power market mechanism, stabilize the national and local incentive policies for new energy development, and strive to build a new power system to solve them through the management innovation, technological progress, multi energy complementation and integrated development of source, grid, load and storage of energy and power enterprises.
During the "Fourteenth Five Year Plan", we should seize the opportunities and face the challenges. On the one hand, we should learn from the experience and lessons of the EU's clean energy transformation, such as early removal of coal and nuclear power, withdrawal from coal power, high dependence on foreign countries and China's campaign to reduce carbon. The gradual withdrawal of traditional energy should be based on the safe and reliable substitution of new energy. We must establish an energy production, supply, storage and marketing system of "multiple energy complementation and multiple guarantees", and firmly put the job of energy in our own hands; On the other hand, we must adhere to the strategic direction of clean energy transformation and maintain strategic focus. We must not waver because of global energy shortage and power rationing in some parts of China. We must continue to run out of the "acceleration" of new energy development to achieve high-quality leapfrog development of new energy. In addition to continuing to adhere to the development policy of "simultaneous development of single variety and multiple varieties, simultaneous development of single scenario and comprehensive scenario, simultaneous development of power generation and non power utilization", the development of new energy should focus more on the development policy of "simultaneous development of single variety and multiple varieties, simultaneous development of single scenario and comprehensive scenario, simultaneous development of power generation and non power utilization", and take the coupling development of "new energy+coal power" and "new energy+energy storage" as the direction, with the development of Shagohuang Base as the top priority, By optimizing the regional layout, leading by diversified demonstration and implementing the "nine actions", we will achieve large-scale, high proportion, high-quality and market-oriented development and actively build a new power system with new energy as the main body.
