The market research in the circulation field of construction machinery in China will be conducted from October 10 to 16, 2022. The excavator models in the following report are: small excavator ≤ 18.5t, medium excavator 18.5t~28.5t, and large excavator ≥ 28.5t; The provinces covered by each region are: East China (Anhui, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Jiangxi, Fujian, Shanghai), South China (Guangxi, Guangdong, Hainan), Central China (Hubei, Hunan, Henan), North China (Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia), Southwest China (Sichuan, Chongqing, Yunnan, Guizhou, Tibet), Northwest China (Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia, Qinghai, Xinjiang), Northeast China (Liaoning, Jilin, Heilongjiang).
Expected feedback of domestic excavator market in October 2022
1. Year on year growth expectation of overall sales
95% of the agents surveyed expect the domestic excavator market to decline to varying degrees in October compared with the same period last year. 22.50% of the agents expect the decline to exceed 50%, a decrease of 1.64 percentage points over the previous month; 23.75%, 17.50%, 11.25% and 20.00% of agents are expected to decline 41% - 50%, 31% - 40%, 21% - 30% and 0% - 20% year on year respectively. Only 2.50% of the agents are expected to remain flat and grow on a year-on-year basis. On the whole, the market expectation in October is slightly better than that in September.
2. YOY growth forecast of small excavator sales
95% of the agents surveyed expect the domestic small digging market to decline to varying degrees year-on-year in October. 17.50% of agents are expected to decline by more than 50% year on year, and 20%, 17.50%, 20% and 20% of agents are expected to decline by 41% - 50%, 31% - 40%, 21% - 30% and 0% - 20% year on year respectively. 3.75% of the agents expect that the small market in October will be flat on a year-on-year basis, while 1.25% of the agents expect growth.
3. Year on year growth forecast of medium-sized excavator sales
95% of the surveyed agents expect the domestic medium mining market to decline to varying degrees year-on-year in October 2022. 28.75% of agents are expected to decline by more than 50% year on year, while 15%, 17.50%, 15% and 18.75% of agents are expected to decline by 41% - 50%, 31% - 40%, 21% - 30% and 0% - 20% year on year. 1.25% of the agents are expected to remain the same year on year, while 3.75% of the agents are expected to grow, which is 3.75 percentage points higher than that in September.
4. Year on year growth forecast of large excavator sales
96.25% of the agents surveyed expect that the domestic market will decline to varying degrees year-on-year in October 2022. 26.25% of agents are expected to decline by more than 50%, and 20%, 12.50%, 16.25% and 21.25% of agents are expected to decline by 41% - 50%, 31% - 40%, 21% - 30% and 0% - 20% year on year. 2.50% and 1.25% of agents are expected to be flat or slightly increased year on year.
5. Statistics of operating rate of customer's equipment in October 2022
In the first ten days of October 2022, affected by various factors, 43.75% of the surveyed customers' equipment operating rate is lower than 40%, 20 percentage points worse than the end of September; 8.75% of customers' equipment operating rate exceeds 60%; The proportion of customers with 50%~60% operating rate is 23.75%. From a trend perspective, the operating rate of customers' equipment in early October has deteriorated compared with that in September. We expect that the operating rate of equipment will be further improved from mid October to late October after the policies of all parties are clear.
6. In October 2022, it is expected that the number of new orders for complete machine sales will change year on year
88.75% of the investigated agents predicted that the new orders for complete machine sales in October 2022 would decrease year on year, a slight improvement of 3.19 percentage points over the previous month, and 11.25% of the investigated agents predicted that the new orders for complete machine sales would increase year on year.
Monitoring feedback of domestic excavator market price in September 2022
In September 2022, the sales transaction price of domestic excavators will change month on month
In September 2022, in the domestic excavator market, the sales transaction price of large excavators decreased by 3.34% month on month, 0.93 percentage points worse than the previous month; The transaction price of Zhongdiao sales decreased by 3.23% month on month, 0.68 percentage points worse than that in August; The transaction price of small excavation sales decreased by 0.88% month on month, with a decrease of 0.63 percentage points.
Feedback on domestic excavator market inventory by the end of September 2022
At the end of September 2022, the average inventory of the investigated agents in the domestic market increased by 27.27% over the same period of the previous month. Among them, the average inventory of large excavators above 30T decreased by 1 over the previous period, the average inventory of medium-sized excavators between 19-30T increased by 5 over the previous period, and the average inventory of small excavators below 19T increased by 6 over the previous period.
Feedback on domestic construction machinery market risk from September to October 2022
1. Statistics on overdue rate of customer financing, mortgage or installment in September 2022
At the end of September 2022, in the domestic market, the overdue rate of Phase 1, Phase 2 and Phase 3 of financing, mortgage or installment of the investigated customers were 6.95%, 5.46% and 4.92% on average, respectively, which decreased by 0.35, 1.17 and 2.00 percentage points compared with the end of last month, and the overall overdue situation improved slightly. From the aspect of overdue, large excavation is the worst and small excavation is the best. Compared with the end of August, Jilin, Tianjin, Hebei, Fujian, Shanghai, Guangdong, Hainan, Xinjiang, Yunnan and other places witnessed a high risk of increased overdue rate.
2. In October 2022, the expected judgment of overdue rate of customer repayment
In October 2022, 71.25% of the investigated agents predicted that the overdue rate of customer repayment would increase compared with September, and 28.75% of the investigated agents predicted that the overdue rate of customer repayment would decrease month on month, with the former accounting for 3.51 percentage points more than the previous month.
3. In September 2022, statistics on the collection rate of customer's equipment project funds
At the end of September 2022, the average value of the customer's payment collection rate for equipment engineering is 53.87%, an improvement of 2.36 percentage points over the same period of the previous month. The maximum value is 95%, and the minimum value is 0%, a decrease of 1 percentage point and flat respectively. The customer's payment collection has improved slightly in the short term.
Compared with the end of August, in the first ten days of October 2022, the payment collection in East China, Central China and Northwest China has improved. In terms of specific provinces, Jiangxi, Shanghai, Genoa, Hunan, Gansu, Ningxia and Shaanxi have improved, while Heilongjiang, Jilin, Beijing, Inner Mongolia, Guangxi and Xinjiang have deteriorated significantly.
4. From September to October of 2022, the change statistics of customer equipment shift cost
In September 2022, the shift fee income of customer's equipment decreased by 4.82% year on year for large excavators, 3.56% year on year for medium excavators, and 2.12% year on year for small excavators, respectively 0.47%, 0.85% and 0.46% higher than that of the previous month. The shift fee income of medium and large excavators decreased slightly. On the whole, from September to October, the competitive environment of the terminal excavator rental market deteriorated, and the equipment rental price decreased on a month on month basis.
